Model Evaluation: 20th Century Climate of the Tibetan Plateau3 1

Model Evaluation: 20th Century Climate of the Tibetan Plateau3.1. selleck chemicals llc TemperatureAs seen in Table 2, from comparison between simulations and monthly average observations of 96 stations on the Tibetan Plateau of reference period (1961~1990), the observation and the simulated values are highly relevant while most correlation coefficients are above 0.96 except INCM3 pattern. So, GCMs have well-simulated temperature on the Tibetan Plateau in a certain degree. The annual mean temperature of the Tibetan Plateau during reference period is 3.3��C. There are great differences between models in simulating multiyear temperatures, while all simulated temperatures are lower than observed values. Compared to observed values, BCM2 pattern has the largest absolute error, that is, 11.

6��C below observation; INGSXG pattern has the smallest absolute error, that is, 3.4��C below observation. With regard to deterministic coefficient, only a few patterns have relatively good simulation ability. With regard to comparison between multiyear monthly mean temperature in reference period of various models and the observed data (Figure 2), it shows that the simulated values of all modes are smaller than the observed; however, the high ones (monthly mean temperature from June to August) are floating around observation. We selected five patterns with the best simulation ability (Figure 3): GGMR, GFCM21, HADCM3, HADGEM, and MRCGCM. Figure 3 shows that climate changes with five models are consistent with the fact, which is also confirmed by Table 1.

As seen from Table 1, these five models own a high value of uncertainty coefficient and the best simulation ability in annual mean temperature. Figure 2Comparison of annual temperatures (1961~1990) on the Tibetan Plateau between simulation and observation.Figure 3Comparison of five best-performance climate models for temperature.Based on grid output of each model, we have interpolated seasonal mean temperature for each station with Delta-DCSI downscaling method [25]. Traditionally, spring is from March to May; summer is from June to August; fall is from September to November; winter is from December to February of next year. Figure 4 shows the observed values of temperature on the Tibetan Plateau in reference period, which indicates that the average temperature of the Tibetan Plateau is between ?5.6 and 14.

5��C, with significant seasonal and spatial differences: high temperature in the southeast, decreasing from south to north and from east to west. Take GFCM21 as an example; we have analyzed differences between simulated and observed values of temperature in reference period (shown in Figure 5). Figure 5 shows that simulated temperature of GFCM21 pattern, which has a deviation of ?18.1��C~7.2��C Dacomitinib from the observed, is much lower than the observed in most part of the region except for edge of the northern and southern areas. Annual mean temperature has a deviation of ?14.0��C~5.

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