Thus, it is useful to know the rate of development of cirrhosis and/or HCC as well as to be able to identify patients at risk. Our aims are to determine the rate and risk factors for development of cirrhosis and/or HCC in CHB patients in a HCCSP. Methods: Outpatients with CHB seen in our Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology

between 1st March 2003-1st March 2004 were enrolled in a physician driven HCCSP comprising 3 to 6-monthly CHIR-99021 order liver biochemistries and serum alfafetoprotein(AFP) and 6 to 12-monthly imaging. Cirrhosis was diagnosed on histology or imaging with supportive clinical evidence. HCC was diagnosed on dynamic CT/MRI scan. Census for events(cirrhosis/HCC) was on 1st March 2013(10 years later). Results: 673 patients were enrolled with 545(81%) still on follow-up after 10 years. 62.6% were males. Mean age was 56.4years(±12.7). Using Kaplan-Meier(KM) analysis, cirrhosis development was 2.1%/8.7%/12.9%/17.8% at 1/5/8/10 years respectively(about 1.8%/year). 43 developed HCC. KM risk of HCC in cirrhotics was 8.1%/13.9%/23.1%/29.8% at 1/5/8/10 years respectively(about

3.0%/year after 1st year). Higher first year HCC rate was due to pre-existing cirrhotics(N = 8) developing HCC. Cirrhotics with ALT>ULN(36 U/L) had significant risk of developing HCC(49.5% vs 31.0%, p = 0.04). Male gender, VX 770 Sodium butyrate baseline age, serum AFP, ALT and ALP were significantly higher and serum albumin was significantly lower in patients who developed cirrhosis/HCC. On multivariate analysis, male gender(OR 1.68; p = 0.023), age>55years(OR 1.73; p = 0.015),

albumin <38 g/L(OR 1.61; 0=0.039) and AFP>4.1 ug/L(OR 1.77; p = 0.001) were independent risk factors. Conclusion: Our CHB cirrhosis rate is about 1.8%/year with 3%/year of cirrhotics developing HCC. In our HCCSP, patient demographics, serum albumin and AFP can independently predict development of cirrhosis and/or HCC. Rate of HCC is expected to be highest in the initial period of a HCCSP. Key Word(s): 1. Hepatitis B virus; 2. Cirrhosis; 3. HCC; Presenting Author: MEHLIKA TOY Additional Authors: JOSHUA SALOMON Corresponding Author: MEHLIKA TOY Affiliations: Harvard School of Public Health Objective: Background: Inactive chronic hepatitis B (CHB) carriers make up the largest group of hepatitis B virus infected patients, and China bears the largest total burden of any country. We therefore assessed the population health impact and cost-effectiveness of a strategy of lifelong monitoring for inactive CHB and treatment of eligible patients in Shanghai, China. Methods: Methods: We used a computer simulation model to project health outcomes among a population cohort of CHB in Shanghai based on age-specific prevalence of HBsAg, HBeAg, and cirrhosis.